“What do you need a fancy suit for Charlie, you got no job to wear it to”. From the 1984 movie, The Pope of Greenwich Village. And there are a lot of fancy suits not being used, due to the massive job losses of late.

The Labor Department reported that 240,000 jobs were lost in October, which was worse than the expected loss of 200,000 jobs. In addition, the Unemployment Rate jumped to 6.5%, up from last month’s read of 6.1% and reaching the highest unemployment rate since 1994. And if the current numbers weren’t bad enough, there were heavy downward revisions to August and September numbers, which erased an additional 179,000 jobs. So far in 2008, a total of 1.18 million jobs have been lost, with 651,000 job losses coming in just the past three months. Look for things to get worse before they get better, as the unemployment rate will likely top 7% soon.

Friday’s Jobs Report was brutal and would typically nudge the Fed to cut their benchmark rates in an effort to spur on the economy. But with the Fed Funds Rate already at 1%, the Fed doesn’t have much more room to cut. This means that Stocks, which worsen on poor economic news, will likely continue to struggle as a result.

Speaking of rate cuts, the Bank of England, the European Central Bank and a few other countries central banks all lowered interest rates last week to help their economies. The good news is that these cuts should have a positive effect on the US Dollar - and therefore will also help Dollar denominated oil prices stay near present levels.

With some of the negative economic news, Bonds did manage a huge, three-day 160bp rally in the middle part of last week, and Bonds and home loan rates were able to hang on to much of this improvement on Friday. As a result, Bonds and home loan rates ended the week nearly .25% better than where they began.

Forecast for the Week

Just like last week, Friday will again be this week’s big day for economic reports, as the Retail Sales Report will be released. The Retail Sales Report is a measure of the total receipts of retail stores from samples representing all sizes and kinds of business in retail trade throughout the nation. This report is the most-timely indicator of broad consumer spending patterns, and given the current economic climate, it could be very ugly. Retailers are already anticipating one of the worst Christmas seasons in a long time, so it will be important to see where things currently stand as we head into the holidays. But the dismal retail situation could spell bargains for those who are still shopping.

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